A Perfect NCAA Bracket vs. Saving $1,000,000
March Madness is upon us, meaning millions of people are filling out their brackets and hoping to predict the outcome of every game in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. While the odds of getting a perfect bracket are incredibly slim, it's still fun to dream of being the one to pick every game correctly and win the big prize. But how does the probability of a perfect NCAA bracket compare to the likelihood of retiring with $1,000,000 in savings? Let's take a look.
The Probability of a Perfect NCAA Bracket
According to mathematicians, the odds of filling out a perfect NCAA bracket are roughly 1 in 9.2 quintillion (that's 9,200,000,000,000,000,000). In perspective, the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are about 1 in 292 million (CNBC, 2023) . The odds of getting a perfect bracket are about 31,500 times worse than winning the Powerball.
Some might argue that the odds of getting a perfect bracket are better than 1 in 9.2 quintillion because some strategies can improve your chances, such as picking all the higher seeds or going with the teams with the best defense. However, even if you use these strategies, the odds are still incredibly slim.
The Probability of Accumulating $1,000,000 in Savings
Retiring with $1,000,000 in savings is a common goal for many people, but how likely is it to achieve? The answer depends on various factors, including age, income, savings rate, and investment strategy.
Here's an example for illustrative purposes. If a 35-year-old deposited $820 a month in a tax-deferred investment account with a hypothetical 7% annual rate of return, the account value would be $1,000,000 by age 65. This potential outcome looks excellent on paper, but we all know this is a massive oversimplification. Markets don't move in a consistent straight line over 30-year periods. And your purchasing power would be $356,412 in today's dollars.
Of course, this is just an example, and your actual savings goal may be higher or lower, depending on your circumstances. For example, if you start saving later in life or have a lower income, you may need to save more each month to reach your goal.
Comparing the Odds
So, how do the odds of getting a perfect NCAA bracket compare to the odds of retiring with $1,000,000 in savings? While both are difficult to achieve, retiring with $1,000,000 in savings is much more attainable than getting a perfect bracket.
The odds of getting a perfect NCAA bracket are so slim that they're almost impossible to calculate. So even if you're a die-hard basketball fan who knows everything about every team, the odds are still stacked against you.
While it's fun to dream of getting a perfect NCAA bracket, it's much more realistic to focus on saving for retirement. By starting early, saving consistently, and investing wisely, you can increase your chances of retiring with $1,000,000 in savings and enjoying a more comfortable retirement.
Bibliography
CNBC. (2023, Jan 14). Here are the odds you’ll win the $439 million Powerball jackpot. Retrieved from CNBC.com: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/14/powerball-odds-of-winning-jackpot.html